Energy prices fell 0.1% at the wholesale level in April, the data show. Prices for intermediate goods dropped 0.5% in April. Excluding food and energy, intermediate goods fell 0.9%, the biggest drop since last December. Prices for crude goods climbed 3.0%, the first gain in nine months. Crude food goods jumped 4.6%, the fastest pace since February 2007. In other economic data issused Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose 32,000 to stand at 637,000 in the latest week. Continuing claims also continued to trend higher. See Economic Report.

Thus any big moves of oil and food higher can really swing the debate. Amazingly, crude is still near $60 even after the IEA cut its ‘09 oil demand estimate today to 83.2mm barrels per day, back to where it was in ‘04 when crude averaged $43. Supply matters too.